Foresight Insight for the Transformational Imperative: Toward a Futures-Oriented Evaluation Practice

Abstract

This article argues that evaluation must radically reorient to meet the transformational imperative posed by the global polycrisis. It critiques evaluation-as-usual (e.g., retrospective, technocratic, and short-term) for reinforcing the systems it purports to assess, and proposes Transformative Foresight (TF) as not merely a technical shift, but as a paradigmatic reorientation that integrates anticipatory, participatory, and decolonial practices into evaluation, moving beyond incremental improvement toward systemic transformation. The authors use three TF subtypes—Trauma-Transformative, Queer, and Indigenous Foresight—that center healing, justice, and relationality in how futures are imagined, evidenced, and governed. A mini case study supports each subtype.  This approach expands validity, rigor, and evidence to include affect, stories, ritual, and futures consciousness, and cultivate H2+ niches within the Three Horizons framework. Using Causal Layered Analysis and the Twelve Principles of Transformation-Focused Evaluation as scaffolds, the article repositions evaluators as companions of systemic transition rather than neutral auditors. It concludes with suggestions for funders, evaluators, and communities. They should adopt foresight-driven, justice-oriented practices. This will help make evaluation an anticipatory, reparative, and ecological tool. Together, they can co-create diverse, regenerative futures and support intergenerational accountability.